US intensifying bid to end Ukraine war – but chances of success remain unclear

The pace of diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine is quickening.

Talks are taking place in London between officials from the UK, Germany, France, Ukraine and the United States. Donald Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff is heading to Moscow for his fourth meeting with President Putin.

And yet there is little clarity about where these efforts are heading or whether they will be successful.

Not so long ago the American plan for ending the fighting in Ukraine was clear.

There would be an immediate, unconditional 30-day ceasefire followed by longer-term talks to establish a permanent settlement to the war.

Ukraine agreed to this and – under pressure from the US – made a huge concession; it would no longer demand the promise of long-term security guarantees before any cessation of hostilities.